Impressive Return for Lookin At Lucky

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/16/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The margin of victory was scant once again, but all Lookin At Lucky does is win races.

The two-year-old champion made his 2010 debut a winning one taking the Rebel Stakes last Saturday at Oaklawn Park by only a head over Noble's Promise. The 6-5 favorite got up in the final jump for his sixth victory in seven lifetime starts, with only one coming by more than a length.

The Rebel was the third straight race Lookin At Lucky tangled with Noble's Promise and the Bob Baffert-trained colt has bested his arch-rival each and every time. This one was most impressive, especially since the son of Smart Strike might not have even finished the race due to a scary moment down the backstretch.

As Dublin, the 7-5 second choice, was ranging up from behind Lookin At Lucky in the four-path, jockey Garrett Gomez (in the three-path) chose to keep pace with his challenger by pushing his colt forward as well. Unfortunately, Gomez rode his horse right on the heels of Noble's Promise, who was sitting in third just ahead of Lookin At Lucky, and had to pull back on the reins, losing a good two-lengths in the process.

Last year's Eclipse-Award winner regrouped to wear down his adversary at the wire, ending all speculation that he would not be able to handle true dirt after six straight races over synthetics.

Lookin At Lucky will now try to duplicate the feats of the last three Kentucky Derby champions (Mine That Bird, Big Brown and Street Sense) by winning the Run for the Roses with only two three-year-old prep races.

As for Noble's Promise, there's no shame in running second in his initial start of the year and on conventional dirt. He easily rebuffed Dublin's challenge at the top of the stretch and would have won if the race was a tad shorter. The bay colt can and will be able to handle a distance of ground, which is the one knock on the son of Cuvee.

His dam side is loaded with long distance turf stakes winners, which should assist him in his quest for glory on the first Saturday in May. His mother, The Devil's Trick, is a half-sister to New Economy, who won the 2002 La Prevoyante at 1 1/2-miles, and his second dam, Sunyata, is a half-sister to Battle Creek Girl, who produced multiple graded stakes horses, including Parade Ground, winner of the 1 1/4-mile Lexington Stakes at Belmont Park.

Dublin, the third-place horse, should improve next time out after being the recipient of an ill-timed ride from Corey Nakatani. After closing stoutly in the Southwest Stakes in February, the chestnut son of Afleet Alex had to make two moves in the Rebel despite being carried five-wide around the first turn.

First, Nakatani forced him into a very fast 23 2/5 second-quarter and then parlayed that into a four-wide sweep on the final turn. Come the homestretch, it was obvious the horse had little left to stay with the likes of Lookin At Lucky and Noble's Promise.

With a better ride in the Arkansas Derby, Dublin should be better equipped to compete with Noble's Promise (and maybe Lookin At Lucky if that one returns to Oaklawn Park), but questions about his ability to go nine furlongs will surely be an issue.

The final time for the 1 1/16-mile race was 1:43 seconds flat, 3/5ths of a second faster than the fillies ran in the Honeybee Stakes an hour earlier. Moreover, it was Lookin At Lucky's and Noble Promise's first starts of the season so there is definitely room for improvement. Either way, these two colts have what it takes to be serious Kentucky Derby threats.

AN UNFORGETTABLE PHOTO

Down at Oldsmar, Florida, Odysseus and Schoolyard dreams battled to the wire in the Tampa Bay Derby with a nose separating the two colts. At first glance, it appeared the five, Schoolyard Dreams held off the late surge from number seven Odysseus, but when the numbers flashed on the tote board, it read seven over five.

The margin of victory was an amazing turnaround for Odysseus, who came into the Grade 3 event off a 15-length win in an allowance race. Even more remarkable than getting his nose in front at the wire was how he pulled off the victory in the first place.

Hard-ridden throughout the run down the backstretch, the lightly-raced son of Malibu Moon was left for dead after Schoolyard Dreams swept by him around the final turn. Even longshot Gleam of Hope passed the 2-1 second choice at the top of the stretch.

Surprisingly, Odysseus found another gear and jockey Rajiv Maragh split horses inside the final sixteenth to win by the smallest of margins. The final time was the same 1:44 1/5 he ran in his previous race and only one tick slower than Rule ran in winning the Sam F. Davis.

Odysseus has license to progress as the year moves along, but he's still very green at this stage of his career. And if he goes to Kentucky without another prep race, it's extremely doubtful he'll be up to the challenge to win the nation's most prestigious event.

As for Super Saver, his 2010 debut should prove valuable in his continued development despite finishing third. Remember, he hung on gamely through the stretch losing by only a half-length when it appeared his day was through.

Schoolyard Dreams proved as the fourth choice in the betting that he cannot be taken lightly. On the other hand, this could be the end of the line for local hero Uptowncharlybrown after a disappointing fifth-place finish. With very little graded earnings, it's doubtful he'll remain on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Still, he wasn't disgraced in the loss since he was checked by Super Saver going into the first turn and had little running room on the rail through the stretch. Expect a much better performance in his next outing, especially if his connections do the smart thing and replace jockey Daniel Centeno.

JOE TALAMO STEALS SAN FELIPE

There were a lot of questions going into the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes concerning Sidney's Candy's ability to wire the field, and after the race, the subject matter still hasn't been answered due to Joe Talamo's fantastic ride aboard the chestnut colt.

American Lion and Interactif failed to mount any sort of early challenge to Sidney's Candy so Talamo was allowed to ration out Candy Ride's speed through much of the race with incredibly slow fractions of 24 1/5 and 48 2/5. After six-furlongs had been run in a pedestrian 1:13 2/5 (a 25 second third- quarter), the race was all but over. The John Sadler-trained three-year-old hung on for an easy half-length victory over Interactif with the Robert B. Lewis winner Caracortado finishing third.

It will be interesting to see if Talamo and Sidney's Candy will be able to control the pace in the Santa Anita Derby the way they did this past Saturday. If so, there's a good chance he'll be able to win going nine-furlongs. If not, he won't be a significant player at Churchill Downs come May 1.

As for the rest of the field, Interactif fared very well in his first Pro-Ride experience and should be a force in the rematch. Caracortado, ran effectively, but wasn't up to the task after being victimized by the slow pace.

Fourth-place finisher American Lion is definitely not a two-turn horse on Pro- Ride while Dave in Dixie proved he is simply not good enough.

THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 12

1) Lookin At Lucky; 2) Alphie's Bet; 3) Eskendereya; 4) Noble's Promise; 5) Make Music for Me; 6) Dublin; 7) Super Saver; 8) Awesome Act; 9) Rule; 10) Stay Put; 11) Connemara; 12) Radiohead.

Vbssports Horseracing Betting News

<< Ohio State extends Tressel's contract again
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ohio State has extended the contract of head football coach Jim Tressel an additional two years. Under the terms of a previous extension signed in 2008, Tressel had been under contract at Ohio State until Ja

<< Tiger to make return at the Masters
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tiger Woods will return to competitive golf at the Masters. Woods made a statement Tuesday, saying he will end his self-imposed hiatus from the game at the year's first major championship, set for April 8-11 at Augu

<< Isles try to end road woes in tough test with Canucks
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Vancouver Canucks will try to extend their seven-game home winning streak when they take on a New York Islanders club that will be looking to avoid a ninth straight setback on the road tonight at GM Place. Vancouver ha

<< Sharks to pay a visit to slumping Stars
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Jose Sharks and Dallas Stars will meet three times before the end of March. That isn't likely to help Dallas' playoff chances. The first of those three scheduled meetings takes place tonight, as Western Conference-

<< Oilers hoping to end longtime suffering in Minnesota
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The last thing that the Edmonton Oilers need at this point in the season is a trip to Minnesota. The road-weary club will try to snap its 12-game slide in the Twin Cities, where the Wild shoot for a third straight victory ton

O'Neill thinks Milner could replace Beckham >>
Birmingham, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aston Villa boss Martin O'Neill thinks James Milner may be the ideal candidate to play on the right side of England's midfield at the World Cup finals in South Africa this summer. The 24-year-old has o

Els back in top 10 of world rankings >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ernie Els' victory Sunday at the WGC-CA Championship vaulted the former world No. 1 back into the top 10 of this week's world golf rankings. Els' win at Doral moved the three-time major winner up

Hull coy on managerial targets >>
Hull, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hull City chairman Adam Pearson has revealed he is working toward appointing a new manager from a select group of names on a concise short-list. The Tigers parted company with former manager Phil Brown on M

Valencia's Albelda out with leg injury >>
Valencia, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Valencia defender David Albelda could be sidelined for up to four weeks after suffering a leg injury during the weekend defeat to Barcelona. The former Spain international has already been ruled out of T

Dundee's Casalinuovo suffers setback >>
Dundee, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dundee United striker Damian Casalinuovo is set to be sidelined for a couple weeks after suffering a hamstring injury in the 3-3 Scottish Cup draw at Rangers. The Argentinian lasted just three minu

FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

To visit this sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your college football betting needs.

MySportsbook.com: NFL draft - The NFC South


In part two of MySportsbook.com’s draft preview, we’ll take a look at a division that was extremely disappointing last season: the NFC South.  Many “experts” predicted the Panthers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, of course they could not even make the playoffs in an extremely weak NFC.  The Saints definitely made up for the disappointing seasons of their NFC South brethren by exploding out of no where en route to the NFC Championship game.  For the avid NFL gambler, it is imperative to pay attention to the NFL draft.  Although free agency gets a ton of publicity, the successful franchises build their teams around the draft.

1. New Orleans Saints
Who would have thought this time last year that the Saints would be the favorites to win the NFC South for the 2007 campaign?  New Orleans is loaded with firepower on the offensive side of the ball but with the exodus of Joe Horn they will most likely look to draft a WR on Day 1.  Despite having the NFL’s 3rd ranked pass defense last season, the Saints will most likely upgrade their CB’s with one of their first two picks. Other possibilities for the Saints will be TE and DT.  Because of where they will be selecting (27th), the Saints could go the “best available player” route which could net a LB.

Key additions: Eric Johnson TE, Troy Evans LB, David Patten WR
Key loses: Joe Horn WR,
Team needs: CB, WR, TE, LB, DT
Possible draftees: Aaron Ross CB Texas, Darrelle Revis CB Pitt, Ted Ginn Jr. WR OSU, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Chris Houston CB Arkansas, Greg Olsen TE Miami

2. Carolina Panthers
Carolina was one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL last season.  With the signing of David Carr, expect the very first quarterback controversy to come out of Carolina if Jake Delhomme doesn’t rebound quickly from an average 2007 season. With veteran safety Mike Minter getting up there in age, they will look to draft a safety on Day 1 but probably not in the first round.  LB is another need with the loss of Chris Draft to go along with Dan Morgan’s concussion problems.  If TE Greg Olsen is still on the board, he might be too good to pass up despite their needs on the defensive side of the ball.

Key additions: David Carr QB
Key loses: Chris Draft LB
Team needs: LB, TE, S, OT
Possible draftees: Greg Olsen TE Miami, Patrick Willis LB Ole Miss, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Levi Brown OT PSU

3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were another NFC South team to have a disappointing 2007 season.  The Falcons have been plenty busy during the off season with plenty of players coming and going including a new head coach.  The Falcons were able to improve their draft position with the trade of coveted backup QB Matt Schaub.  High on the list of Day 1 needs will be a defensive end to replace Patrick Kerney and a hard hitting safety since Lawyer Milloy is nearing the end of his career.  With an additional 2nd round pick, the Falcons could attempt to trade up to acquire local product WR Calvin Johnson. 

Key additions: Joey Harrington QB, Toniu Fonoti OG, Joe Horn WR
Key loses: Justin Griffen RB, Patrick Kerney DE, Matt Lehr OG, Ashley Lelie WR, Matt Schaub QB
Team needs: DE, S, OT, WR, DT
Possible draftees: LaRon Landry S LSU, Amobi Okoye DT Louisville, Levi Brown OT PSU, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas, Alan Branch DT Michigan

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age really caught up to the Bucs last season.  The Bucs still have plenty of household names on defense in Ronde Barber, Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks but the one thing those three have in common is unfortunately age.  It is imperative for the Bucs to get much younger, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Despite having bigger needs on the defensive side of the ball, WR Calvin Johnson is the most likely pick if he is still available when the Bucs pick at the four spot.  This would suit Bucs’ faithful just fine as Johnson is widely considered the top talent in the draft and it is a position of need for the Bucs.

Key additions: Jeff Garcia QB, Kevin Carter DE, Torrie Cox CB, Cato June LB
Key loses: Dewayne White DE, Sean Mahan OG
Team needs: WR, LB, DE, CB (Youth on defense!)
Possible draftees: Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech, Gains Adams DE Clemson, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas

It is never too early to start betting on the NFL. Log on to MySportsbook.com to checkout all of the NFL futures for the upcoming season.  On the clock: the NFC North

Odds to win the NFC South:
New Orleans Saints 8-5
Carolina Panthers 2-1
Atlanta Falcons 12-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-2    

Odds to win the NFC:
New Orleans Saints 13-2
Carolina Panthers 7-1
Atlanta Falcons 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-1

Odds to win the Super Bowl:
New Orleans Saints 18-1
Carolina Panthers 20-1
Atlanta Falcons 50-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75-1

To visit this sportsbook get to MySportsbook.com for all your online sportsbook needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.