Ching leads champs to Western final

Soccer Betting Lines

11/03/2007 - Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the second straight season, the Houston Dynamo came back from a first leg deficit in the Western semis to advance to the Major League Soccer Western Conference Final.

Last season, the Dynamo fell at Chivas USA, 1-0, in the first leg before topping the California club, 2-0, in the return leg at Robertson Stadium to advance.

This season, after falling behind, 1-0, at FC Dallas in the first leg of the Western Semifinal Series, Houston dug deeper with Carlos Ruiz scoring the first goal in the game to push the Hoops' aggregate-goal lead to 2-0.

But the defending MLS Cup champs came through in the second half and overtime with Dallas down a man, with Brian Ching leading the way with two goals and an assist, to lead Houston to a 4-1 win and help them advance, 4-2, on aggregate.

With the loss, Dallas extends its drought of first-round playoff failures. The club has failed to advance past the conference semifinal series since 1999.

The game started ominously for the visitors, with top defender Clarence Goodson, the lone goalscorer in the first leg, forced to miss the game with a stomach ailment. This came after one of the teams other top defensive players, midfielder Pablo Ricchetti, missed the start because of a hamstring injury suffered in training this week. To top that off, starting goalkeeper Dario Sala tweaked his knee early in the contest and had to be replaced by rookie Ray Burse just 25 minutes in.

Despite all that misfortune, Dallas was able to score the game's first goal just 14 minutes in when veteran defender Bobby Rhine played a long ball into the Houston defensive third. the ball was headed in the box by Hoops striker Kenny Cooper right to fellow striker Ruiz, who fired just under the crossbar, first time, to make it 1-0 and increase the aggregate lead.

That was how the score stayed until the break, and Dallas looked like it was in good shape at the start of the second half until winger Arturo Alvarez lost his cool and kicked Brad Davis in the midsection after the two got tangled out of bounds in the 47th minute.

Referee Baldomero Toledo issued a straight red card, meaning Dallas, already thin in the back, had to play the entire second half down a man.

With that, Houston started pushing for the equalizer, but Burse held strong in goal. His best save occurred when he came out to challenge second-half sub Joseph Ngwenya in the box, knocking the ball out of bounds.

But the Houston pressure relented, with Stuart Holden scoring the first goal of his playoff career just two minutes later.

The goal was almost identical to the Ruiz' tally with Dynamo defender Ryan Cochran played a long ball into the box to Ching, who headed it to the top of the six to Holden for the volley.

The goal tied the score in the game at one, but Dallas still led on aggregate, 2-1.

That was short lived, however, as Ching got his first goal of the game just five minutes later after receiving a perfect through-ball from Dwayne De Rosario in the box. The U.S. international one-timed the shot, beating Burse to make it 2-1.

That was how the score stayed through regulation, forcing the teams to play two 15 minute extra time periods.

Seven minutes into the first extra time period, Ching powered home a deflected ball in the box to give the home side a one-goal lead before a Davis free kick from just outside the box three minutes later was placed perfectly into the top corner of the net to close out the scoring.

The Dynamo outshot Dallas 24-5 in the contest while the two teams combined for 40 fouls and 12 cards in the Texas rivalry match.

Houston will now play the winner of the Kansas city Chivas USA semifinal series in the Western final on Saturday. If Fourth-seeded Kansas City, which currently leads the series 1-0, advances, second-seeded Houston will host the game. If top-seeded Chivas USA advances, the Western Final will be at The Home Depot Center in Carson, Calif.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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